☝️ Upwarding #35: No Frisco, Staying “Alive”, Colonoscopies, Intuition, and Oprah’s Attitude
NEVER call this place “Frisco”. Apparently locals used to get fined $25 for the mere crime of saying it in public! Whether that’s true or not, here’s a long version of why locals hate the nickname.
David Whyte: “anything or anyone that does not bring you alive is too small for you.” A very high, but useful standard for those confronted with too many options (aka pretty much everyone). A related idea is “if it’s not a hell yes, it’s a no”. AKA “say yes to less”.
Peter Attia is a longevity specialist and doctor. I think he makes an excellent case that we should get more and earlier colonoscopies. As a bonus, he discusses how to find the best doctor for your colonoscopy.
Concentration in investing exposes us to bigger downside. While many people understand this with traditional investing (own indexes instead of individual stocks, for example), it applies to all investments.
E.g. I have a friend who is doing real estate investing in “triple net” properties, and he bought two Dollar General stores. He can reduce his downside exposure by:
- Making sure each has different lease expirations (for example, 9 years and 14 years)
- Buying a different triple-net dollar store with similar economics, like Dollar Tree (in case one of the companies does well at the expense of the other)
- Buying a non-retail property as your second property (for example, an industrial building)
- Having your loans with two different banks (in case one bank sours on these kinds of deals and won’t renew your loan on favorable terms)
- Spreading our geographically (perhaps one is in a more rural area and one is in a more suburban area, or east coast/west coast)
What the above have in common is that they will typically reduce risk without reducing expected returns.
Have you ever been to a carnival where they try to correctly guess your weight and/or age?
This is a wonderful example of how to develop intuition. At first, a novice “guesser” is quite far off, on average. But over time, they consciously and unconsciously figure out how to improve their guesses. Like an archer learning to hit the center of the target, people adapt when they get feedback on their performance.
The lesson: constantly make written predictions about outcomes, and afterwards assess how accurate you were.
“If you look at what you have in life, you’ll always have more. If you look at what you don’t have in life, you’ll never have enough.” ~ Oprah Winfrey
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