A big lesson I’ve learned in business and life: intelligently overreact, early. You just have far more options earlier.Take COVID-19. Italy’s case rate has been growing about 20% per day. They currently have 15,000 cases. If they can’t stop the spread, simple math suggests 500,000 people have it by the end of the month. They’ve put in place some draconian measures, but they are probably too late.South Korea has pulled out all of the stops, ramrodding through privacy concerns. For example, they track the GPS data from COVID-19 positive people’s cell phones and then publicly post where those people have been. They are also incredibly aggressive about testing. South Korea COVID cases are growing at only a few percent per day…if they continue they will end up with maybe only 15,000 cases at the end of the month – Growth rate matters, a lot.SO: overreact intelligently, early. The options and costs of actions now are dramatically lower than they will be in a couple of weeks. So I’m in favor of closing schools, shutting down travel, stocking up on food now, etc. It will be expensive, but it’s also expensive to have 500,000 cases burdening your hospitals. Stay well.